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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical year!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still